Template Credit: Adapted from a template made available by Dr. Jason Brownlee of Machine Learning Mastery.

SUMMARY: The purpose of this project is to construct a time series prediction model and document the end-to-end steps using a template. The Ozone Concentration at Arosa dataset is a time series situation where we are trying to forecast future outcomes based on past data points.

INTRODUCTION: The problem is to forecast the monthly ozone concentration levels measured at Arosa, Switzerland. The dataset describes a time-series of concentration levels (in Dobson unit or DU) over 40 years (1932-1971), and there are 480 observations. We used the first 80% of the observations for training and testing various models while holding back the remaining observations for validating the final model.

ANALYSIS: The baseline prediction (or persistence) for the dataset resulted in an RMSE of 29.5. After performing a grid search for the most optimal ARIMA parameters, the final ARIMA non-seasonal order was (2, 0, 4) with the seasonal order being (2, 0, 1, 12). Furthermore, the chosen model processed the validation data with an RMSE of 16.6, which was better than the baseline model as expected.

CONCLUSION: For this dataset, the chosen ARIMA model achieved a satisfactory result and should be considered for further modeling.

Dataset Used: Monthly Ozone Concentration at Arosa January 1932 through December 1971

Dataset ML Model: Time series forecast with numerical attributes

Dataset Reference: Rob Hyndman and Yangzhuoran Yang (2018). tsdl: Time Series Data Library. v0.1.0. https://pkg.yangzhuoranyang./tsdl/.

The HTML formatted report can be found here on GitHub.