NOTE: This script is for learning purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation for buying or selling any stock mentioned in this script.
SUMMARY: This project aims to construct and test an algorithmic trading model and document the end-to-end steps using a template.
INTRODUCTION: This algorithmic trading model examines a simple trend-following strategy for a stock. The model enters a position when the price reaches either the highest or the lowest points for the last X number of days. The model will exit the trade when the stock’s fast and slow moving-average lines cross each other.
In addition to the stock price, the models will also use the trading volume indicator to confirm the buy/sell signal further. Finally, the strategy will also incorporate a fixed holding window. The system will exit the position when the holding window reaches the maximum window size.
In this Take1 iteration, we will set up the models using a trend window size for long trades only. The window size will vary from 10 to 50 trading days at a 5-day increment. We will use 20 to 40 days for the fast-moving average and 50 to 80 days for the slow-moving average. The models will also incorporate a volume indicator with a fixed window size of 10 days to confirm the buy/sell signal. Furthermore, we will not limit the holding period by setting the maximum holding period to 999 days for this iteration.
ANALYSIS: In this Take1 iteration, we analyzed the stock prices for Apple Inc. (AAPL) between January 1, 2018, and February 19, 2021. The top trading model produced a profit of 92.77 dollars per share. The buy-and-hold approach yielded a gain of 87.70 dollars per share.
CONCLUSION: For the stock of AAPL during the modeling time frame, the long-only trading strategy produced a better return than the buy-and-hold approach. However, we should consider modeling this stock further by experimenting with more variations of the strategy.
Dataset ML Model: Time series analysis with numerical attributes
Dataset Used: Quandl
The HTML formatted report can be found here on GitHub.